By: Jon Costello
See the original 2025 write-up (public): (Idea) Our #1 Metallurgical Coal Stock Pick - Warrior Met Coal
See the July write-up: (Idea) Warrior Met Coal: One Of The Best Met Coal Names
I have been bullish on Warrior Met Coal HCC 0.00%↑ for more than a year, largely because I believed the completion of Blue Creek would transform the company’s economics. I first published a long write-up on July 2, 2025. Since then, HCC shares have performed very well.
Given the price appreciation, the thesis is now being borne out. Blue Creek has increased Warrior’s production capacity, lowered its unit costs, and helped turn the company into a much larger free cash flow generator.
Yet I am less enthusiastic about the shares today than I was when I last wrote about Warrior in July. The reason is straightforward. The business has improved, but the share price has improved even faster.
Warrior recently traded around $105 per share, after having traded in the high $70s when I published my previous update. At the time, I wrote that the shares remained attractively priced relative to my estimate of their value. Since then, metallurgical coal prices have rallied sharply, sparking investor enthusiasm for the shares.