Ideas from HFI Research

Ideas from HFI Research

(Idea) Sable - The Final Stretch (Part 2)

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HFI Research
Sep 30, 2025
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I can’t believe I’m doing a part 2 already, and it’s only been 4 days, but here we are. On Sept 26, when I published The Final Stretch, I wrote:

  • There’s a lot of pressure from environmental groups urging Governor Newsom not to sign off, including people like Assemblymember Gregg Hart, the backer of the AB 1448 bill.

  • Newsom needs a political cover to make it obvious that signing off on the Sable restart is the correct thing to do. FPSO, which Sable is actively suggesting (more on this later), is being presented as an alternative in the event Governor Newsom plays political games behind the scenes.

  • Previously, Sable has operated under the good faith of California laws and process, but now that SB 237 has passed and with January 1, 2026, as a deadline, the company has switched strategies (FPSO route) as a tactic to expedite the approval process.

Fast forwarding to today, Sable disclosed the following items after the market closed:

  • 8k - Alternate Offtake Strategy (FPSO route).

  • A letter to the Secretary of the Interior and the Secretary of Energy.

  • A new investor presentation.

Before the start of trading on Monday, rumors were circulating that there was going to be a company announcement soon. And during trading, it was made clear that there would be a press release after the close.

The market went into a frenzy with exhausted bulls stampeding over one another, trying to gain whatever insights they could about what the company would release.

Is it OSFM?

Is it dilution?

Whatever it was, it can’t be good because the stock price is down. As a result, this must mean bad news, right?

And sadly, that’s the problem with the market in SOC right now. No one really knows the full scope of the situation, and instead, we are forced to use reasoning and logic to arrive at the conclusions.

Logic

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