(Idea) Obsidian Energy - Attractive Valuation, Unproven Growth

By: Jon Costello

Note: All dollar figures are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified.

Obsidian Energy OBE 0.00%↑ has built its entire investor pitch around three words: “Per share growth.” The phrase appears on its presentation’s value-proposition slide, reserves slide, and the “why invest” slide of its July 2026 presentation. It is the metric by which management wants the company to be judged by shareholders. The metric is both sensible and testable.

Results to date bear out that Obsidian has yet to demonstrate the per-share growth. Over the past three years, production per share, funds flow per share, and book value per fully diluted share have all been flat or have declined despite a 16% reduction in the share count.

The market’s skepticism is evident in the company’s market valuation. At $14.70 per share, Obsidian trades at roughly 45% of its stated proved-plus-probable net asset value of $32.35. The relevant question, therefore, is not simply whether the shares appear inexpensive, but what must occur for that discount to narrow and how much value should be assigned to the company before operating evidence materializes.