By: Jon Costello
Please read: (Idea) Greenfire Resources - The Stock Is Undervalued
When I last wrote about Greenfire Resources (GFR) in July, I valued the shares at roughly C$14, or around $10 on the U.S. listing, and said I intended to subscribe for at least my pro rata share of the company’s coming rights offering once the final terms were known. Those terms are now final. I will exercise enough rights to preserve my ownership, but I do not intend to request additional shares.
That is a less bullish conclusion than I reached in July. The Connacher acquisition gives Greenfire a much larger reserve base, and the upsized rights offering leaves the company less leveraged than the original financing plan. But revisiting the numbers exposed a weakness in my earlier analysis. I did not charge Greenfire’s legacy assets enough capital to hold production flat, even as Hangingstone production continued to decline. A simplified year-end 2025 proved-reserve reference still gets me to roughly C$10.97 per share versus C$8.57 on September 3. That is enough value to keep me interested, but realizing much of it will require better execution than Greenfire has demonstrated so far.