(Idea) GeoPark

By: Jon Costello

In 2025, GeoPark GPRK 0.00%↑ transitioned from a period of stable production to one of managed decline. After reaching a peak of 39,000 boe/d in 2022, production fell to 28,194 boe/d over the first nine months of 2025. The drop in production was attributable to natural declines, asset dispositions, temporary blockades, and delays in infill drilling. It reflects the maturity of GeoPark’s asset base and management’s attempt to reignite growth.

Not surprisingly, the company’s poor operating performance hammered its share price over the past year.

GeoPark shares have fallen 14.43% since the beginning of 2025, versus a positive 20.73% return from the XEG Canadian E&P exchange-traded fund $XEG.TO and the 47.97% gain of GeoPark’s closest peer, Parex Resources.

With its legacy assets in managed decline, GeoPark has pinned its future on newly acquired assets in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play. If it can successfully boost production and expand in the basin, its shares can deliver multi-bagger returns over the coming years. However, the company’s growth plan carries considerable risk. If it fails, the shares are likely to languish in the mid-single-digits as legacy assets decline.

After a thorough review, I’ve concluded that the shares are too speculative for my liking. However, their massive upside in a bullish scenario may be of interest to long-term investors seeking production growth into what we expect to be a rising oil price environment.